 spending 6 bill on content? ye, right. there WILL be BLOOD…

You’re all wrong. But nothing new there.

I lived on Radford Ave. that’s where a little show called Seinfeld lived for almost a decade. My tour of duty at my address was also about a decade. I fell asleep to “drunks” at 4343 Radford AA house getting louder and louder in the early mornings of their nightly meetings as this teenager was trying to get zzzz’s. I was a script coordinator for a Larry Charles pilot and I’d purposefully time my departure to deliver scripts to talent homes just so I could leave when Jerry left. In his 993. Usually around 12:30am. Circa early 90s.

Net net, my competitive advantage and knowledge of THE CONTENT WAR Apple just entered exponentially grew. Now, in my last “cycle”, circa mid 2000s, my CAGR was close to 30% WITH a 62.5% drawdown.

What does this mean to you, ye faithful reader of MICA Bear? . Net net, I’m dialed into the town of tinsel better than ANY ANALyst on any street that’s not Radford Ave. Ives WAG of 6bill in CY ‘20 with a possible M&A target is so off, it’s laughable. Hysterically laughable. IF Apple, Inc makes ANY acquisition in ‘20, my sources tell me that content spend in ‘20 will easily surpass 10 billion. Doing a real-time HBR case study here, IMHO, Tim Apple made a major strategic blunder. He should have stroked a check to someone. He didn’t. So, he knowingly and forcefully entered his beloved fruit company into a near zero-sum, fight to the death CONTENT War and THERE WILL BE BLOOD. Netflix is going to spend 11 figs on content next year. HBO will spend somewhere in that vicinity. It’s partner CBS just woke up and have plastered billboards stating, IT’S ON and you rich folk living in Podunk, USA with too much money and too little time think you’re gonna handicap this?

I wish you the best of luck. You have no idea of the freeway that Apple just waltzed into. I’ll fill you in. Apple is trying to jaywalk the 101 South between Laurel Canyon Blvd and Highland. Is it possible? Sure, anything’s possible. A broken clock is right twice a day. Is it likely? Hell no. Is it gonna leave a mark? Um, spending 25 bill over the next two years chasing a finicky end user in loss-leader mode WILL NOT buff right out. And the name closed at an ATH today?

PS – I almost forgot. Google woke up and decided there might be something to the Watch category last Thursday. I was out on a 5150 last week and I’m back and well-rested. And retired. Study Apple on 9/21/12. Forward looking, it was never cheaper. Until it was. And it got much cheaper. That was a red letter day. And 10 days ago, we had another.

PPS – one of many WAVEs to come. Ready? Apple won’t see a three handle till 2022. At best… Who wants some? Let’s escrow.com playa.

G/L. You’ll need it.

PS – Buy puts, putzes…

Published by ..papichulo


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