babe ruth was on cnbc today and he did a live interview. he gave metrics that were ridiculous. he informed you that margin is increasing BIG LEAGUE. he then casually told you he’s at the forefront of sports betting. he tried to tell you that he has the best monetizable brands in disposable time. he forgot to tell you that he has the most profitable casino in the world. and he’s trading down today.
I lived on Radford Ave. that’s where a little show called Seinfeld lived for almost a decade. My tour of duty at my address was also about a decade. I fell asleep to “drunks” at 4343 Radford AA house getting louder and louder in the early mornings of their nightly meetings as this teenager was trying to get zzzz’s. I was a script coordinator for a Larry Charles pilot and I’d purposefully time my departure to deliver scripts to talent homes just so I could leave when Jerry left. In his 993. Usually around 12:30am. Circa early 90s.
Net net, my competitive advantage and knowledge of THE CONTENT WAR Apple just entered exponentially grew. Now, in my last “cycle”, circa mid 2000s, my CAGR was close to 30% WITH a 62.5% drawdown.
What does this mean to you, ye faithful reader of MICA Bear? . Net net, I’m dialed into the town of tinsel better than ANY ANALyst on any street that’s not Radford Ave. Ives WAG of 6bill in CY ‘20 with a possible M&A target is so off, it’s laughable. Hysterically laughable. IF Apple, Inc makes ANY acquisition in ‘20, my sources tell me that content spend in ‘20 will easily surpass 10 billion. Doing a real-time HBR case study here, IMHO, Tim Apple made a major strategic blunder. He should have stroked a check to someone. He didn’t. So, he knowingly and forcefully entered his beloved fruit company into a near zero-sum, fight to the death CONTENT War and THERE WILL BE BLOOD. Netflix is going to spend 11 figs on content next year. HBO will spend somewhere in that vicinity. It’s partner CBS just woke up and have plastered billboards stating, IT’S ON and you rich folk living in Podunk, USA with too much money and too little time think you’re gonna handicap this?
I wish you the best of luck. You have no idea of the freeway that Apple just waltzed into. I’ll fill you in. Apple is trying to jaywalk the 101 South between Laurel Canyon Blvd and Highland. Is it possible? Sure, anything’s possible. A broken clock is right twice a day. Is it likely? Hell no. Is it gonna leave a mark? Um, spending 25 bill over the next two years chasing a finicky end user in loss-leader mode WILL NOT buff right out. And the name closed at an ATH today?
PS – I almost forgot. Google woke up and decided there might be something to the Watch category last Thursday. I was out on a 5150 last week and I’m back and well-rested. And retired. Study Apple on 9/21/12. Forward looking, it was never cheaper. Until it was. And it got much cheaper. That was a red letter day. And 10 days ago, we had another.
PPS – one of many WAVEs to come. Ready? Apple won’t see a three handle till 2022. At best… Who wants some? Let’s escrow.com playa.
i’m not an bear. i’m an trader. i’m not a douchebag that has a wife half my age and puts that on a message board. as mentioned, i’ve been asked by some major shareholders to advise them how to protect their nest egg. i’ve advised them to buy puts in a ratio to one or a half contract for every share they own. ps – don’t be a keyboard hero. make sure that everything you post on a message board is something you’d say to my face. cause one day, you just might…
if you’re sitting on a nest egg retirement position and you’re not insuring it with puts or $SQQQ. leaders are first to rally and last to fall. today is shaping up to be a reversal day. if you’re in and you don’t buy puts, you win the GREEDY award. insure your position with mar $SQQQ calls or $AAPL puts. your welcome…
horace comes out with a wonderful piece about the walled garden. only “one more thing” missing. services revenue growth doubling in three years is awesome. but the first double is the easiest. some idiot at http://www.ped30.com threw out a 200 billion service revenue business. muthrrfucker must have been smoking the good stuff. the world population needs to triple in order to start realizing those kind of numbers. PASS the doobie on any side. faces significant headwinds. recession, tariffs, saturation, etc. i’m with andy.
we’re counting lines. but that doesn’t work anymore. why? garbage in, garbage out (GIGO). it’s not about line counts anymore. the more relevant stat is transaction time. from our cursory nationwide poll, assisting with installation of SERVICES is causing transaction time to nearly double. makes sense. this is obviously creating a throughput bottleneck and giving to impression of long lines to analysts who can’t think their way out of a plastic bag. we teach the kids at KOWIYWME that bad data gives bad results and that results in one thing. LOOSING MONEY. YOUR WELCOME…
so we did too. still not sure why. anyway, longs are about to get smoked. why? how much time do you have? the street likes to call these headwinds. we prefer getting head in the wind but that’s besides the point. each of these headwinds can peel 5 points of fapple 😂 but we see something bigger. we think many of them are gonna hit. and that’s called perfect storm. so. what to do? for starters, if you’re long af , don’t be a fucking idiot. buy jan ‘20 210p at open today for full ratio to your holdings. ie, buy 1 contract for every 100 shares you have. your welcome.